According to @KobeissiLetter, unemployment expectations in the US have surpassed 2020 levels, reaching their highest since 2008. A 2024 poll revealed that 56% of Americans believe the US is in a recession, sparking debates on whether the US is heading towards an economic downturn.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, market probabilities of a US recession are increasing, with 5-year Treasuries now pricing in a 52% chance of a recession within the next 12 months, up from 45% in November. Additionally, the recession odds priced-in by the Russell 2000 index have surged to 48% from just 1% in November, signaling growing market concerns over a potential economic downturn.

According to Gordon (@AltcoinGordon), when there is a consensus that a recession has begun, it often indicates that the worst part of the downturn is already over. This perspective suggests that market sentiment could shift towards recovery once a recession is widely acknowledged.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, oil prices have plummeted to their lowest point since May 2023, driven by market concerns over an increased risk of recession and adjustments in OPEC+ supply. This significant drop reflects the market's reaction to potential economic downturns and changes in oil supply dynamics.